### Table 4: Downgrade Prediction — Logit Models

| Specification | N | Events | Pseudo-R² | AUC | Key Coef |
|:--|--:|--:|--:|--:|--:|
| 3a.1: Demographics only | 1021 | 20 | 0.031 | 0.671 | -5.768 |
| 3a.2: + OADR level | 1021 | 20 | 0.021 | 0.637 | 5.491** |
| 3a.3: + OADR spline(20%) | 1021 | 20 | 0.026 | 0.637 | 0.059 |
| 3a.4: + Fiscal | 866 | 20 | 0.213 | 0.869 | -5.386 |
| 3a.5: Full | 783 | 19 | 0.190 | 0.858 | -6.327 |
| 3a.6: Predetermined (OADR+10) | 576 | 16 | 0.262 | 0.892 | - |

*Dependent variable: downgrade_any (=1 if rating decreased from prior year). Key coef: OADR or Z₁ coefficient with significance stars.*
